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Reveries.com - July, 03
Changing Channels
BY: Chris Hoyt
Fully 100 percent of Consumer Packaged Goods industry growth between now and the end of 2005 is expected to be captured by only three trade classes -- Supercenters, Clubs and Small-Format Value Discounters.
These three channels are forecasted to account for approximately 35 percent of total, 7-channel CPG sales -- a whopping 75 percent gain versus these channels' 20 percent share in 1998.
These projections are based on an amalgamation of forecasts by acknowledged industry experts -- Management Ventures, Inc., Retail Forward, Willard Bishop Consulting, Inc. -- as well as our own estimates based on Nielsen and IRI national trends.
Not surprisingly, hurt the most by the gains of these channels will be Supermarkets, which have lost four share points since 1999, and are projected to lose another five points in a progressively declining curve by the end of 2005.
While the Chain Drug channel is expected to grow only marginally between now and YE2005 (one share point), all of this growth will be driven by Walgreens and CVS. In addition to Supermarkets, the other "losers" will be Traditional Discount and Convenience -- with 7-Eleven as a possible exception due to its highly successful "Retail-Forward" campaign.
The challenges faced by manufacturers in coping with these channel business shifts have never been greater -- but neither have the opportunities presented by these shifts. Why? The retailer community appears to be rapidly dividing into two camps, each of which requires different approaches and neither of which can be ignored.
The first camp is comprised of the "traditional channels" --- Supermarkets, Drug Chains, Traditional Discount and Convenience Stores. With a 65 percent share of CPG sales, these are still the mother-lode channels for most CPG companies (depending on category) and obviously are not channels from which one can simply walk away.
The second camp is comprised of those channels and/or accounts that have "figured it out" and, as a result, are now forecasted to capture virtually all CPG industry incremental growth for the foreseeable future. In this camp are what we would call "Consumer-Focused Retailers" and "National Brand Retailers." Consumer-Focused Retailers are defined as those retailers whose business models focus on a specific consumer segment, lifestyle trend or shopping occasion.
Examples:
National Brand Retailers are single-banner retailers who are working – and spending – to become National Brands in their own right. The defining characteristics of these retailers are that: a) they have achieved national household penetration (or will soon achieve it), and b) they have adopted clear, precise and consistent positionings that provide a platform for differentiation in national advertising.
Examples:
Lest anyone think that these retailers' commitment to these campaigns is trivial, let's look at Walgreens. Walgreens just began national advertising in 2002. In 2003, it plans to spend $360MM to convince consumers that Walgreens is the perfect, convenient answer to an imperfect world.
In the past five years, Wal*Mart has moved up the LNA ranking from #78 to #51, surpassing Coca-Cola in absolute spending. Target outspends General Mills and Anheuser-Busch. Importantly, all of these retailers are funding these initiatives out of revenues -- not via supplier trade promotion dollars -- meaning that these retailers are confident of their positioning and committed to promoting it through advertising as a sustainable strategy.
The obvious issue manufacturers have to face in coping with these changes stems from the fact that most CPG manufacturers are set up to sell, service and market primarily to the traditional channels. Channels like Warehouse Clubs, Dollar Stores and Limited Assortment Grocery must be sold, serviced, benchmarked and even accounted differently. For most CPG manufacturers, dealing with these channels has been a huge pain because every decision and/or activity comes across as an expensive exception.
To sell and service the current growth channels effectively, one has to understand how their buying and merchandising practices differ from traditional channels and restructure skill sets, mindsets and organizations accordingly. While space does not permit a thorough cataloguing of these differences, here's a short list:
Implications for CPG manufacturers:
Meanwhile, savvy CPG manufacturers are beginning to ask questions like the following regarding their business in traditional channels:
To the last point, for brands feeling squeezed by traditional media fragmentation and the shrinking availability of cost-effective equity-building vehicles, all of these changes can only be interpreted as good news.
While we know there has been a lot of noise in the system about "Stores as Media", the opportunity to capitalize on the household penetration and clear positioning of the single-banner retailers who have achieved national distribution is now here. What's more, these retailers are already committed to advertising and do not have to be educated or "sold" on its merits.
The real issue is no longer whether these retailers can be utilized as cost-effective consumer communications vehicles but the willingness of Brand Groups to get out in the field to evaluate and benchmark these opportunities so that Co-Marketing with these retailers can be incorporated as an integral and routine part of the annual core brand planning process.
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